$NVDA GAMMERS Analysis
6 posts covering the full GAMMERS deep dive: moat, management, valuation, bear case, and more.
NVIDIA: The Greatest Cash Machine in Semiconductor History, and Why I Am Not Buying It
A company generated $96.7 billion in free cash flow last year, sits on $54 billion in net cash, and owns the software ecosystem that runs every major AI model on Earth. Every financial metric I track is flashing green. Every moat test I run comes bac...
Read the full analysisWhy Every NVIDIA Competitor With Unlimited Funding Still Fails
Graphcore raised $767 million. Intel spent $2 billion on Habana Labs. Intel tried five separate GPU architectures over 27 years. AMD has been working on ROCm for a full decade and still trails by doub...
Read postThe Gorilla You Miss When You're Counting Passes: A Lesson in Confirmation Bias
There is a famous psychology experiment where researchers ask you to count basketball passes between players wearing white shirts. A person in a gorilla suit walks through the middle of the frame. Bea...
Read postThe One NVIDIA Bear Argument With No Bull Rebuttal
I spent weeks trying to destroy the NVIDIA bull case. That is literally what the Rational Reversal step of my GAMMERS process does: you invert the thesis, build the strongest possible bear case, and s...
Read postWhy I Run Every Valuation Twice (And What It Costs Me When I Don't)
My first valuation of NVIDIA said the company was worth $55.88 per share. I looked at that number, looked at the evidence sitting right next to it, and realized I had a problem. Not with the evidence....
Read postThe NVIDIA Valuation: $88 Watchlist Price, 19.5x Return at Entry
Three valuation engines. Three answers. $49, $64, $174. A 3.5x spread between the lowest and the highest. And from that disagreement, a single number: $88. The question I keep sitting with is whether ...
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